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Houston is also 3-0 ATS on the road this season and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against USF. USF is 106th in scoring offense and 109th in scoring defense. The Coogs are 10th against the run, 18th in pass defense and 24th in scoring defense. They’ve been known for their high-powered offense for much of their time in the AAC (currently 19th in scoring offense) but it’s been their defense that’s carried them to that 7-1 record. The Cougars’ win last week puts them at 5-0 in conference play and in the driver’s seat to take on Cincinnati in the AAC Championship. The 71 points is the highest total in their last 10 meetings. The total has gone under in seven of New Mexico State’s last eight against Utah State, including the last five meetings in Las Cruces. The total has gone under in seven of Utah State’s last nine road games. This number is way too high considering the trends for both Aggies. Liberty is gonna have a tough time slowing down Ole Miss’ offense and while Lane Kiffin has been openly critical of his defense this season, the Flames haven’t seen anything like it. The fact of the matter is Liberty has played against teams nowhere close to the talent Ole Miss possess during their impressive two-year run. But as much as I tried to talk myself into backing Liberty, who is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games and in the top 20 in scoring offense and defense, I just can’t.
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It has some fascinating storylines with Hugh Freeze heading back to Oxford and two of the top quarterback prospects in Matt Corral and Malik Willis. The title is Underdogs Against the Spread and this would typically be a spot where I’d love to take the G5 team against a P5 team. The total has also gone under in nine of Air Force’s last 11 games. The top two rushing teams in the nation square off and the under has hit in seven straight meetings between the two service academies.
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*All lines are according to and are accurate at the time this article is publishedĪrmy Black Knights vs. Underdogs Against the Spread: Best 2021 G5 Football Over/Under Win Totals